Scenario Indicators
Scenario Allocation
The PACTA methodology is climate agnostic however requires that each scenario has a sufficient granularity. Each scenario employed requires data at the technology level, covering the categories of the asset level data and regional granularity covering the global stock of assets.
Simply, the change designated by the roadmap in each technology is calculated for each company and each country. These values are aggregated to the company level and the portfolio level.
The detailed steps for calculating the change expected in each technology are as follows:
The % change from the start year for each technology at a regional granularity.
The assets of a company are aggregated to the country level.
The next step varies between low and high carbon technologies:
Low carbon technologies: The % change value is multiplied by the total production for the sector to calculate the change required
High carbon technologies: the % change value is multiplied by the total production for that technology to calculate the change required.
For example, over the next 5 years, under the SDS scenario, Europe should increase installed renewable power capacity by 13% and decrease installed coal capacity by 4%. If a company operating in Europe owns 100MW of power in Europe (of any technology) the scenario calculation would suggest in 5 years’ time they should build an additional 13MW of renewable power. If 20MW of the original capacity owned by the company is coal power, then they should be reducing the installed coal capacity by 20MW x 4% or 0.8MW.
Sector Indicators
The indicators extracted from the scenarios to inform the model at this stage are expressed in terms of either capacity (e.g. installed capacity for the power sector) or production (e.g. number of vehicles for the automotive sector or tonnes of coal mined for the coal sector). These terms are used interchangeably in this methodology.
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